Microsoft in the Cloud
Question: "There has been a lot of traffic on whether MS is going to abandon Windows and move on with cloud computing & the Midori concept. Do you have any inside info on this and if it is going to be the direction you see MS going? Would appreciate your ideas!" Wow, is that ever a great question. But it's going to make me think. I've been trying to avoid that because it always gets me in trouble with organizations such as the FBI. But, what the heck. Let me put on my thinking bonnet.
What Could Beat Windows?
Eweek suggests 7 options. I'll list these options and my reactions to them.
Apple's OSX might, but Apple has been an also-ran since IBM got into the market and released its technical specs. Apple has kept everything proprietary and that causes as many problems as it solves. The Apple faithful will continue to believe, but Apple seems poorly positioned to take over the desktop.
Linux is the successor I'm betting on. A lot of major applications won't run under Linux, but they will run under WINE, which runs under Linux. Yes, this is a kludge, but the price is right.
Solaris/OpenSolaris? Oh, please.
FreeBSD. This would be Apple's OSX without the graphical interface. I think not.
Midori. Hmmm. This is clearly where Microsoft wants to go. The goal is to create a dependable operating system in which the kernel, device drivers, and applications are written in managed code. Does this sound like OSX? Or OS/2?
iPhone OS/Symbian/Android. Ring. Ring. I hear you calling, but I'm not answering. I simply cannot envision a time when I would want to do everything on a palmtop device.
Netscape? Didn't netscape give up? Shut down? Close the doors? Announce that there would be no more updates? Eweek says, "Microsoft was worried that the OS of the future could be the Web, and it may be correct. The client system that ends up displacing Windows might be no OS and every OS. The emergence of Web-based services and open standards may well make for a future in which users of all the systems I've mentioned—and several that have not yet emerged—can work together through their Web browsers. The Web OS future would depend on solving tough problems around connectivity, offline access and security in an ultraconnected world." There's a good reason why this was number 7 in their list of 7.
The first part seems easy. Computers need operating systems. Today, Microsoft owns the market space for desktop computer operating systems. Sure, it's true that Linux or Apple's BSD-Unix-based OSX might be better. Or easier to use. Or cheaper over the life of the machine. But the fact is that Microsoft has a lock on the desktop and that's not going to change quickly.
I think it is going to change and I think that Microsoft is on the wrong end of the stick, but the change isn't going to happen in the next few years and the operating system isn't where the threat to Microsoft will come from if the topic is "cloud computing". Incidentally, I think "cloud computing" is a silly term. What's wrong with "online computing"?
The Irony
More than 30 years ago, when I started to become involved with computing devices, there were no personal computers. The closest you could get to a personal computer was a dumb terminal that connected (at 300 baud) to a mainframe or minicomputer. Text only. No graphics.
Then Apple, IBM, and others developed computers that brought processing power to your desk. Instead of depending on the corporate mini/mainframe for everything, you could request data from the corporate system and examine in using the computer on your desk and a remarkable program called "VisiCalc" (Dan Bricklin, 1978), followed by Lotus 123 and then by Microsoft Excel.
VisiCalc was the first killer application, the one that convinced managers to pad their expense accounts and find a way to buy an Apple II on the sly. Then came IBM and the raft of "compatible" computers, which sometimes were actually compatible. The test in those days was whether an "IBM compatible" computer could run Flight Simulator.
Satellite Software International, in Orem, Utah, released a word processor called WordPerfect. It was a port of a word processor developed for Data General computers for a city in Utah. The city retained rights to the minicomputer version, but allowed Bruce Bastian and Dr. Alan Ashton to retain the rights for PC-based ports.
WordPerfect eventually trounced WordStar, which had been the market leader until then and was, for the next decade, the standard for word processing. Microsoft Word was initially an underpowered underachieving competitor, but as Windows replaced DOS and the WordPerfect Corporation was slow to bring Windows-based products to the market, Ami Pro (later acquired by IBM) and Microsoft Word gained market share.
Today the Microsoft Office suite is the only real competitor for office applications.
Forward to the Past
Now the buzz is all about "cloud computing", which I would prefer to call server-based or application service provider (ASP). Google has an ASP office suite. So does Zoho. And Microsoft.
But none of this has any effect on the operating system. All computers need an operating system and, for the immediate future, that's going to be Microsoft Windows. If users migrate en masse to online ASPs, that will have an effect on Microsoft's bottom line. But will they? I've looked at the online services and some of them (calendars, for example) are superb. But trying to edit a long document online, or to enter data into a large online spreadsheet, is torture. Give me "cloud-based" computing for sharing documents, but please don't torture me by telling me that I must use the cloud for daily work.
Not yet. Even though I have a fast (for the US) connection from home and a very fast connection from the office.
This is the future. It is not the present. The ideal would be to use the power we have at our fingertips on our desktop computers to do some of the work and to use the "cloud" for what it does best—storing and sharing information.
Microsoft Thought the Internet Was Unimportant
Remember Microsoft's initial response to the Internet. Bill Gates thought it wouldn't be of use for most computer users. That was one of his worst predictions and it explains why, even with Vista, Microsoft operating systems are less secure than other operating systems. Linux is based on Unix, an operating system that has provided for multiple users and security from the beginning. Apple's OSX is Unix (BSD - Berkeley Software Distribution Unix).
Microsoft doesn't make the same mistake twice. It took the company several tries to develop a word processor that competed with WordPerfect, but Microsoft won. It took the company several tries to develop a browser that competed with Netscape, but Microsoft won. Microsoft is nothing, it not persistent. And it won't pass from this mortal coil quietly or easily.
Microsoft will continue to innovate (the company doesn't get the credit it deserves for innovation) and I would look for more "cloud"-based computing from Microsoft. But I also don't expect them to abandon the desktop versions of Word, Excel, Powerpoint, Access, Outlook, Project, and such. Too many people need capabilities that don't yet adapt well to computing in the "cloud".
Carbonite: You'll Hear More Soon
I've told you about Carbonite previously. For less than $60 per year, Carbonite makes backup copies of the critical files in my computer. I've talked to Carbonite CEO David Friend a couple of times. He likes to talk about disasters that have been averted: A disk crash wipes someone's digital photos, but the Carbonite subscriber recover them quickly, for example. I could be the poster child for someone who has damaged an existing file and who got the original back from Carbonite.
It appears that Carbonite will be a bit more ubiquitous in coming months. The company's latest round of funding may pay for radio and television ads. Venture capitalists have funded Carbonite with enough money to spend on traditional media. But there's also an agreement with Lenovo: New computers will come with Carbonite already loaded on IdeaPad notebooks.
As I've said time and time again, "If your data isn't backed up, it doesn't exist." You probably have a lot of files on your computer that you couldn't replace if the hard drive crashed. Friend says that 43% of us will lose computer files that we won't be able to replace. Are those files worth $60 per year to safeguard? My answer was yes. What's yours?
Online backup, such as that offered by Carbonite, is slower than backing up to a local hard drive or a local CD or DVD, but it also eliminates the need to deal with external hard drives or with CDs/DVDs. You don't have to remember to do anything because Carbonite notices new files and saves them automatically. And because the Carbonite backup isn't near your computer, it's safe from threats such as tornados, hurricanes, fire, flood, and theft.
Online backup is becoming a crowded market. Carbonite competes with Mozy and Lenovo also has a deal with Mozy for its line of ThinkPad computers. IdeaPad systems are for consumers and ThinkPad systems are for businesses, but business clients might prefer Carbonite to Mozy because of Carbonite's security policies. Also in the marketplace are Hewlett-Packard’s Upline, Symantec's SwapDrive, and Fabrik, which bundles online backup with external hard drives.
Friend says Carbonite's main challenge is that most people don't know the company exists. Carbonite has raised about$47 million in venture capital. There are no immediate plans for an IPO, though. Friend says he will wait for markets to improve and for Carbonite to attract several million customers. Currently, Carbonite has several hundred thousand clients.
Nerdly News
Throw Away the Key
With servers in the US, Latvia, and Ukraine, Damon Patrick Toey and his gang stole tens of millions of credit and debit card numbers and sold them to other thieves. The other thieves used them to order merchandise. Now Toey has pleaded guilty to 4 felony charges that include aggravated identity theft, wire fraud, and credit card fraud. He'll be sentenced on December 10 and could face a prison term of 5 years on each count, plus fines of $250,000 for each count.
When he was arrested, Toey had about $9500 in his possession. The US District Court in Boston approved a plea deal that also specifies that Toey must forfeit all the money he earned from the data-theft operation. Eleven crackers were charged last month in connection with data thefts from TJ Maxx, BJ's, DSW, OfficeMax, and others. In all, they stole information about some 45 million credit and debit cards.
Toey and gang ripped people off for 5 years starting in 2003 by breaking in to corporate LANs that used non-secure communication methods. They would park near stores and use computer gear to look for WiFi signals. When they found one, they captured all of the data so that they could steal information from credit cards as the cards were scanned by the stores.
Say goodbye, Mr. Toey.
Online Deals on Digital Televisions
A co-worker purchased puffickly huh-yooge (apologies to Stephen King) LCD television screen with a built-in digital tuner, so I guess he's all set for when the FCC yanks the analog rug out from under our feet. What impressed me was the size of the screen and the price. LCD screens that used to sell for $2000 or more are now under $1000 and often well under that. In this case, the price was around $600.
If you're like most people, you're waiting for the Christmas holidays to get the best prices. Some analysts think that prices this year will drop drastically. Price drops depend on manufacturers' inventories and retailers' inventories, but there's a good chance that prices will continue to drop.
LCD screens are already surprisingly inexpensive. If you search online, you'll find some spectacular deals. Online prices for LCD and even plasma screens typically beat prices available at brick-and-mortar stores. Often online stores sell without charging tax and may offer low-cost shipping, too.
And you, too, can have a puffickly huh-yooge television.
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